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Tropical Depression Eleven Forms; Not Expected to Be a Threat to Florida

Tropical Depression Eleven has formed in the central Atlantic, but it poses no immediate threat to the Sunshine State.

A more organized center of circulation was noted on satellite data Tuesday afternoon around a tropical wave located 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, and this prompted the National Hurricane Center to begin advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven.

The National Hurricane Center says that environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for further development which could allow the system to strengthen into a Tropical Storm by Wednesday. If this occurs, it would acquire the name “Josephine”.

Tropical Depression Eleven is expected to continue moving westward at roughly 16 mph across the tropical Atlantic through Wednesday, with the forward direction then shifting more west-northwest through the end of the week. This would bring the storm within a few hundred miles of the northern Leeward Islands by Friday.

Fortunately, environmental conditions ahead of the tropical system are expected to become less favorable for further development as it moves north of the Lesser Antilles this weekend. Long range forecast models suggest stronger winds aloft could cause TD Eleven to weaken considerably, or even degenerate into a tropical wave before reaching The Bahamas early next week.

Despite the forecast for TD Eleven to weaken, all East Coast residents in hurricane-prone areas are encouraged to monitor the progression of Tropical Depression Eleven in the coming days, but at this time it does not pose a threat to the United States.

The peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season is approaching, and multiple forecast agencies expect it to become “extremely active”. Historically, an average of only two named storms form by early August, and the ninth named storm typically does not form until October 4. This year, however, nine named tropical systems have already come and gone, which puts the season about two months ahead of schedule.

Athena Masson is a meteorologist with the Florida Public Radio Emergency network. She holds a doctorate in Meteorology, with a specialization in tropical cyclones.

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