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Another above-average hurricane season ahead, NOAA says

Rising water left some Central Florida homes flooded after Hurricane Irma in 2017. Photo by Amy Green

NOAA is forecasting above-average hurricane activity again this season. 

It would be the seventh consecutive hurricane season with above-average activity. 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is predicting 14 to 21 named storms, including up to 10 hurricanes, with the possibility of six of those being major.  

The agency points to warmer-than-average water temperatures, among other factors. But NOAA’s Rick Spinrad says forecasting has gotten more accurate in recent years.    

“The cone of uncertainty has gotten significantly smaller since 2005. We’ve also seen improvements in our intensity forecast. Forecasters can now more accurately predict changes to hurricane intensity early in a storm’s life cycle.” 

Scientists also are studying how climate change can make hurricanes more damaging. The outlook applies to overall activity and is not a landfall forecast. Hurricane season starts June 1st.

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Amy Green

About Amy Green

Reporter and Producer

Amy Green covers the environment and climate change at WMFE News. She is an award-winning journalist and author whose extensive reporting on the Everglades is featured in the book MOVING WATER, published by Johns Hopkins University Press, and podcast DRAINED, available wherever you get your podcasts. Amy’s ... Read Full Bio »